Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.215715 3.859393 4.578331 5.437877 6.434439 7.550248 8.890758
2025-04-13 2.119867 2.925221 3.934113 5.277016 7.001999 9.126266 11.920744
2025-04-20 1.652881 2.566074 3.824205 5.650039 8.191148 11.555837 16.291349
2025-04-27 1.284815 2.218304 3.617607 5.806053 9.065475 13.648334 20.462244
2025-05-04 1.044271 1.983357 3.499992 6.030493 10.022338 15.922829 25.099946
2025-05-11 0.826219 1.721064 3.272864 6.023804 10.599081 17.675451 29.133784
2025-05-18 0.632587 1.445840 2.959125 5.804560 10.782393 18.817212 32.324736
2025-05-25 0.477971 1.199292 2.638583 5.504541 10.766946 19.610692 35.008279
2025-06-01 0.384625 1.051419 2.468714 5.438575 11.128220 21.029888 38.795222
2025-06-08 0.310967 0.925057 2.313116 5.367374 11.458188 22.409772 42.613352
2025-06-15 0.279714 0.891811 2.345987 5.673037 12.521217 25.152804 48.964129
2025-06-22 0.235307 0.810740 2.255155 5.703620 13.048438 26.971092 53.825187
2025-06-29 0.194998 0.729807 2.152281 5.701819 13.531679 28.791607 58.914663
2025-07-06 0.160466 0.653899 2.045683 5.675533 13.964865 30.565553 64.081620
2025-07-13 0.150897 0.654522 2.136784 6.126857 15.465419 34.528517 73.627007
2025-07-20 0.132378 0.618071 2.120207 6.313984 16.408777 37.467906 81.435260
2025-07-27 0.118318 0.592343 2.128015 6.562618 17.515540 40.821241 90.269400
2025-08-03 0.099264 0.539300 2.043456 6.557996 18.038479 43.016406 96.976945
2025-08-10 0.078270 0.467743 1.883568 6.322786 17.986810 43.999550 101.326593
2025-08-17 0.059832 0.396698 1.704761 5.999827 17.677028 44.394900 104.495881
2025-08-24 0.049145 0.356543 1.619133 5.928831 17.983212 46.153211 110.595603
2025-08-31 0.040266 0.320222 1.536777 5.852113 18.263500 47.871781 116.718761
2025-09-07 0.037640 0.318129 1.582740 6.181566 19.647231 52.196134 128.670244